Oscars 2020: Predictions

Last year, I called the Oscar ballot 'so-so'. Mediocre movies triumphed on the biggest stage in the film world with Green Book taking home Best Picture and Rami Malek being awarded Best Actor for Bohemian Rhapsody. It was an odd year and there was an air of apathy over the whole Academy Awards. This year, however, it's a breath of fresh air to have a close run in the Best Picture department between two (or three) excellent films and other brilliant films falling close behind. But you can read all of my thoughts on the big award here or everything else here. You're here to hear who I think should win and will win. Well then, let's go: 

Shorts:

Best Animated Short

This category is stacked this year. Hair Love and Kitbull seem to have the traction, and they're both nice, but the animation style is nothing special. Daughter, Sister, and Memorable are all creatively superior but with that comes a lack of accessibility. Memorable is the best here by a long shot, but It won't win. Give this to the slightly more meaningful Hair Love over the nice but basic Kitbull.

Will Win: Hair Love

Should Win: Memorable

Best Live Action Short

Another strong year in this category. There's lighter films and darker films. Nefta Football Club is a bit nothing but fun. Saria and Brotherhood are powerful dramas but hard to watch. A Sister is a compelling little short, well acted and well shot, but The Neighbour's Window manages to hold all of these aspects in tension, telling the most complete story in a rear-window-esque style with a nice twist ending.

Will Win: The Neighbour's Window
Should Win: The Neighbour's Window

Best Documentary Short

Documentary short is a wonderfully diverse category. We have looks back on the past in the haunting In The Absence, the power of dance in Walk Run Cha-Cha, the exploration of the bizarre resignation syndrome in Life Overtakes Me, the battle being fought by Bruce Franks jr. to pass a critical bill, and the fascinating insight into warzone education in Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone. It's almost impossible, therefore, to rank them easily because they're so different. But Learning to Skateboard and In The Absence are more insightful than the others, bringing something important to the forefront of media. My preference falls to In The Absence but Learning to Skateboard explores something completely new, exciting, and positive. It ticks all the boxes. 

Will Win: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone
Should Win: Learning to Skateboard in a Warzone

Technical Categories:

Best Cinematography

There's not that needs saying here. This is 1917's award to lose. It's visually stunning and the cinematography is all of that. 

Will Win: 1917

Should Win: 1917

Best Costume Design

In previous years, period films do well here and Little Women fits that bill and more. It's beautiful in all aspects including it's costumes. It's not just that they're period, it's that every single one, from the ball gowns to the warm winter coats, are stunning. The other nostalgia grabs (OUATIH, The Irishman) might make a punt here but otherwise this is set. 

Will Win: Little Women

Should Win: Little Women

Best Make-up and Hairstyling

This may be a trend this year, but this is another one that seems set. For anything to topple Bombshell would, ironically, be a bit of a bombshell. 

Will Win: Bombshell

Should Win: Bombshell

Best Production Design

Finally a close race. Once upon a time in Hollywood and 1917 are neck and neck here. One for nostalgia, one for war. Both winners here. I didn't see Hollywood in the '60s but the reality of the representation in OUATIH seems to be giving it sway. So for that reason, I'm going for 1917. I can't imagine the nostalgia is going to appeal to everyone, but 1917 should grip us all. 

Will Win: 1917

Should Win: 1917

Best Visual Effects

Last year, I argued strongly for Avengers which was beautiful whilst not seeing much in eventual winner First Man. This year, I've changed my mind; I see the brilliance of 1917. Or more accurately, I don't see it. 1917 is filled with thousands of VFX shots and yet, they're imperceptible and effective. I stand by Endgame for the same reasons as last year, but can't give it. It may pip the post as a honorary award (to award the last 10 years of the MCU), but I doubt it. The Lion King is stunning but sucks, same for Star Wars. The Irishman's weakest point was it's VFX, no matter how revolutionary. 

Will Win: 1917

Should Win: 1917

Best Film Editing

Like many others, I loved Ford v Ferrari especially for its race sequences. That is all editing, baby. It's not going to get love anywhere else so people might, when looking at their ballots which lack any FvF, drop it some love. That being said, Parasite is tightly edited and relies so heavily on it's pacing that it should be acknowledged as the best edited film of the year. The experts are split, I couldn't call it. But for reasons above, I say:

Will Win: Ford v Ferrari

Should Win: Parasite

Best Sound Editing

War. Guns. Action. This is 1917's to win. No doubt. 

Will Win: 1917

Should Win: 1917

Best Sound Mixing

War. Guns. Action. This is 1917's to win. No doubt. 

Will Win: 1917

Should Win: 1917

Music:

Best Original Song

For me, this is the weakest category in the whole of the awards. Not just for weaker films, but also for a lack of memorable songs. There's no Happy, no Let It Go, no Remember Me and so on. But the best is Rocketman's original Elton John number. 

Will Win: I'm Gonna Love Me Again (Rocketman)
Should Win: I'm Gonna Love Me Again (Rocketman)

Best Original Score

This should be 1917's. Newman's score was a strong component of the film and was faultless. Joker's score is also excellent and with 1917 set to be the big winner tonight, I'd imagine Joker to walk away with awards for it's two strongest elements - the performance and the score.

Will Win: Joker

Should Win: 1917

Writing:

Best Adapted Screenplay

People loved Jojo Rabbit and it won't win anything else. It's screenplay and this would be a deserving award to give it, however Little Women took something old, something well known, and made it new and fresh. That's almost all in the screenplay. I'm stuck between the two. I loved both; Little Women was the better film but Jojo has more effective moments delivered by an intelligent screenplay. Some people may vote against the Nazi-for-comedy stuff though...

Will Win: Jojo Rabbit

Should Win: Jojo Rabbit

Best Original Screenplay

This has to be Parasite. None of the others come close, as much as I'd love to see Knives Out or Marriage Story get some love. Booksmart should be here also and 1917 can be dropped. 

Will Win: Parasite

Should Win: Parasite

Fringe Films:

Best Animated Feature

Another weaker category. I Lost My Body is great, as is Toy Story 4 but the latter may fall short due to over-Pixarisation (look it up). Klaus and Missing Link both do something different stylistically but are unimpressive narratively. It's getting late and your call is as good as mine here. 

Will Win: Toy Story 4

Should win: I Lost My Body

Best Documentary Feature

From a weak category to one of the strongest. All of the documentaries are contenders here. American Factory is amazing and getting a lot of love, as is The Cave. Personally, my vote goes to For Sama, which I thought was the most eye-opening of the nominees, though not an easy watch which might take away it's winning value. This time, I'm going with my gut.

Will Win: For Sama

Should Win: For Sama

Best Foreign Language Film

If Parasite doesn't win, I will admit I don't understand anything. 

Will Win: Parasite

Should Win: Parasite

The Big Five:

Best Supporting Actor

No one else has even got a look in this season, and rightly so. But only because Willem Dafoe has been robbed across the board. 

Will Win: Brad Pitt (OUATIH)

Should win:Willem Dafoe (The Lighthouse) Brad Pitt (OUATIH)

Best Supporting Actress

As above, no one will uproot Laura Dern's momentum, but I'm on the side of Scarlett Johansson in Jojo Rabbit. I'm also on the side of booting Kathy Bates for Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers. A much tighter category than its male counterpart but still, here's to Laura. 

Will Win: Laura Dern (Marriage Story)

Should Win: Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)

Best Actress

It's hard not to see the brilliance of Renee Zellweger's performance as Judy Garland. I also love Scarlett Johansson in Marriage Story and would not object to her having a double win but it won't happen 

Will Win: Renee Zellweger (Judy)

Should Win: Renee Zellweger (Judy)

Best Actor

Again, nothing changing here. Expect Joaquin Phoenix to win with no competition and deliver another speech about some important topic. I am in love with Adam Driver in Marriage Story and think it was the best performance of the year. It was nuanced, it was correctly explosive, it was painful and powerful. In other words, it was Joaquin Phoenix's Joker performance but subdued and superior.

Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Should Win: Adam Driver (Marriage Story)

Best Director

On any other year, this would be Bong Joon Ho's award hands down. He made an astonishingly good film like nothing else here. But Sam Mendes made 1917 which is more than a film. It's an experience. A technical marvel. A miracle. That is all down to Sam Mendes and his work. Either would be worthy recipients but:

Will Win: Sam Mendes (1917)

Should Win: Sam Mendes (1917)

Best Picture

The big one, and for the first time in years, it is genuinely exciting. Any of these films could win. It's been amazing to follow. From a five horse race (OUATIH, The Irishman, Parasite, Joker, 1917) to a three horse race (OUATIH, Parasite, 1917) to really a two horse race (Parasite, 1917). OUATIH still has an outside chance, especially under the preferential system, but 1917 and Parasite would both be worthy winners for different reasons. Parasite is the best film. 1917 is the best production. 

Will Win: 1917

Should Win: Parasite