SHORT FILMS
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
Letter to a Pig has the most interesting animation (of the good options - Our Uniform has more interesting animation, but the film feels only a moment long). Ninety-Five Senses is the best story and most enjoyable. War is Over! is terrible but has some bizarre mass appeal because of its warm, fuzzy approach to how we end war (just be nicer! It's so easy!).
Will Win: War is Over!
Should Win: Ninety-Five Senses
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
I'm convinced The After is a joke that got out of hand and Red White and Blue (which may still win...) tries to hard to be shocking to win an argument rather than engage fully in the debate. The other three are great, but Henry Sugar is in a different league. It is a visual delight from beginning to end with great performances throughout. It goes to show what a veteran of Hollywood can bring to shortform storytelling.
Will Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
Should Win: The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar
DOCUMENTARY SHORT FILM
The ABCs of Book Burning states facts with no reasons and expects you to be outraged. This is lazy film making and its nomination is an outrage. Island in Between is a little bit nothing. Nai Nai and Wai Po is an absolute joy and The Barber of Little Rock gives exposure to a great cause. For me, however, the warmth, love, and commitment shown in The Last Repair Shop captures the importance of access to the arts. It feels like it actually says something and that, if nothing else, should be commended.
Will Win: The ABCs of Book Burning
Should Win: The Last Repair Shop
FEATURE LENGTH FILMS
COSTUME DESIGN
Okay, so time for a bit of Poor Things love. The costumes were so good and totally unique. Barbie could upset here, but in essence there was a lot of 'recreating' of existing costumes - they are just a lot smaller normally...
Will Win: Barbie
Should Win: Poor Things
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
A category that often contains a stinking film, and this year is no exception with my least favourite, Golda. Mirren's make-up is impressive, but no more so than Cooper in Maestro and less so than Dafoe in Poor Things. Society of the Snow is impressive due to how integrated across the whole film it is. Not one cast member or moment stands out but everything feels real throughout. I imagine many will be persuaded by one of the more obvious and flashy choices, and boy is Dafoe's make-up great, so I'm not upset with a Poor Things win.
Will Win: Poor Things
Should Win: Society of the Snow
PRODUCTION DESIGN
A two horse race between the two 'world-building' films here, Barbie and Poor Things. For the latter, that world is the whole film and therefore drips from every scene. In the former, the world is half the film and often based on existing intellectual property. Yes it brings it to life, but the originality of Poor Things should win out here.
Will Win: Barbie
Should Win: Poor Things
CINEMATOGRAPHY
Poor Things is in the discussion here (but why isn't Lo Capitano?!) but I think it is too funky for the mass appeal needed to win. Maestro has a lot of great cinematography but it is also disjointed and unsure quite what it is doing. At the other end of the scale, Oppenheimer is a technical marvel. Glorious looking at all times, which is quite the feat when you consider how much of it is spent in small rooms as men discuss nuclear warfare.
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Oppenheimer
SOUND
Are we really going to discuss this? Oppenheimer, being the technical masterpiece it is, could snag this, but this should be Zone of Interest's; a film that develops its narrative power through the use of sound. It makes the audience complicit in atrocities by exposing them to the noise of horror whilst they enjoy the beauty and peace the other side of the wall. This feels like what this award is for.
Will Win: The Zone of Interest
Should Win: The Zone of Interest
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SCORE)
In my study, I've enjoyed the American Fiction jazz score but i cant say i noticed its impact during the film (unlike some of the animated options - Spider-Man, The Boy and the Heron, and Robot Dreams). Indy's score is... well... Indiana Jones. It does not deserve to be nominated in 2024. The other three are great scores. Poor Things and Killers really set the tone for the world they create an atmosphere for, but Oppenheimer's score does a lot of the heavy lifting for a weighty film. Atoms collide and worlds are destroyed as the swelling sound of Göransson envelops the viewer, making them less of a watcher and as much a hearer, an experiencer.
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Oppenheimer
MUSIC (ORIGINAL SONG)
Can I be frank? I think Original Song is a dull category. More than half the time they're credit songs which offer little to the film (unless we're talking Bond themes which can set the tone) and if a credit song beats out something that actually added narrative weight to a film, it feels unjust (well, to me at least). The Barbie songs are narrative songs and deserve to win. Of the two, What Was I Made For was the better song even if I'm Just Ken is more fun.
Will Win: What Was I Made For
Should Win: What Was I Made For
VISUAL EFFECTS
This is a really tough one. I loved Godzilla. It was one of my top films of the nominees and it had incredible visual effects done on a shoe-string budget. On the other hand, The Creator also did masses with very little and it looks incredible. There's so much CGI, used so well and so creatively to build the world, that it cannot be ignored. I'm glad I don't actually have to cast my vote.
Will Win: The Creator
Should Win: Can I call for a tie? Fine... The Creator
FILM EDITING
I'm no editor and great editing is unseen but a big part of editing must be the pacing. To make a dialogue heavy three-hour epic is feat barely attempted and should not be attempted without an editor who can make those three-hours fly by. Both Killers of the Flower Moon and Oppenheimer achieve this, but Oppenheimer deserves the attention it is getting here. Totally thrilling stuff from beginning to end.
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Oppenheimer
WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
In my mind, this is a less obvious category. Oppenheimer is a dialogue heavy epic. Poor Things and Barbie have hilarious and meaningful moments (though what was performance, what was script?). Zone of Interest feels like a real wild card, but American Fiction has been dominating the precursors and... I get it. I really enjoyed American Fiction, it's wit and charm, even though its one of the weaker Best Picture nominees. But if it is going to win something, this feels like the one.
Will Win: American Fiction
Should Win: American Fiction
WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
A much stronger writing category (well, maybe not you, Maestro) - these are some of my favourites of the year. I adored Holdovers and Past Lives and I'd have no trouble picking either of them. I think Past Lives is the stronger entry and, shockingly, this may be the only place it could win something. But, sadly, I think it will be beaten by Anatomy of a Fall which boasts its clever screenplay as its greatest strength. It spans multiple languages, multiple timelines, it balances its revealing of information to keep the ambiguity of guilt at boiling point constantly. A worthy winner if Past Lives must be toppled.
Will Win: Anatomy of a Fall
Should Win: Past Lives
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE FILM
How many times will we say this: this is a strong category. All are a look into something bleak whether corrupt authorities, dementia, war, or the influence or extremism. Four Daughters is the most creative, Bobi Wine is the one with the widest appeal, 20 Days is the most shocking and also uniquely captures the first days of war. That life-risking commitment to documentary feels worthy of the prize.
Will Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
Should Win: 20 Days in Mariupol
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
These are five great films and if there was somehow a five way tie, i would be happy. In any other year, I think Society of the Snow would take this but Zone of Interest is up for Best Picture, and rightly so. Smart money is then on it to follow every other international best picture nominee and win, but man its sad to think that Teacher's Lounge and Lo Capitano may fly under the radar for many if they go away winless, unlike Society and Perfect Days which have Netflix and Mubi backing them, respectively.
Will Win: The Zone of Interest
Should Win: The Zone of Interest
ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Strong category this year (not you Elemental). Exciting to see art styles that are not copying Pixar out-doing Pixar. Nimona was fine and the other three are great. Unfortunately, whilst it may get the gong, Spiderman lacked a 3rd act and that is a major flaw for me (especially as it was so good otherwise). Robot Dreams is totally charming and I love it but there is something uniquely special about The Boy and the Heron. Will it be too weird to take it? Not long to find out.
Will Win: Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse
Should Win: The Boy and The Heron
ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
This is a strong category. Gosling and Ruffalo are laugh-out-loud hilarious and De Niro is severely sinister but Brown and RDJ are much more multifaceted, layered, and nuanced. RDJ nabs it - his performance is better, more central, weightier.
Will Win: Robert Downey Jr
Should Win: Robert Downey Jr
ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Okay, if there is a done deal on Oscars night, this feels like it. Nyad does not deserve awards contention, even if Foster is the best thing about it, and Ferrera is lucky to be here too. Blunt is a brilliant but a little used piece in a much bigger film. Brooks is the highlight in an already enjoyable musical. But, come on, Mary is the heart and soul of The Holdovers and Da'Vine Joy Randolph brings her to life beautifully. There should be no questions here.
Will Win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph
Should Win: Da'Vine Joy Randolph
ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Domingo feels slightly like he is making up numbers here, Cooper was fine, and as good as Wright is, this is a two horse race. My heart belongs to Giamatti, who gives the best performance of his career in one of my favourite movies of the year, but my brain belongs to Murphy. He is the smart choice, brilliantly carrying a three-hour cinematic epic on his shoulders. The award should go to Cillian Murphy on that basis, but don't call it an upset if Giamatti snags it - call it a joy!
Will Win: Cillian Murphy
Should Win: Paul Giamatti
ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
People are saying Emma Stone has this in the bag but... I'm not so sure. It's big and dramatic and over-the-top. It is definitely the 'most' acting and, with the amount of nudity, deeply personal and vulnerable too as an actor. But Lily Gladstone is the anchor of Killers of the Flower Moon. She is far more nuanced and I'm not sure anyone else would have been able to have had the same effect on the film that she did. Is Stone great? Maybe, but i can imagine someone else playing Bella, even, dare I say, better? Look, I thought Poor Things was fine, but not the masterpiece that others seem to think. Maybe I'm just being negatively reactionary, but it would be amazing to see Gladstone get this. Hang on, what if Stone and Gladstone split the votes and somehow Hüller comes out on top? You know what? Anatomy of a Fall was great. You go Sandra Hüller. Listen, I'll be fine as long as Annette Bening doesn't win because Nyad was naff.
Will Win: Lily Gladstone
Should Win: Lily Gladstone
DIRECTING
All of these would be such great winners (and none of them deserve pushing out to make way for Gerwig). Scorsese is brilliant but doing something that feels less fresh than his fellow nominees. This feels like it should come down to The Zone of Interest or Oppenheimer
Anatomy of a Fall is a great courtroom drama; it follows that formula pretty well. Poor Things is probably too out-there (and its biggest criticisms can almost all be levelled at the director - excessiveness summing up a lot of that). But Zone does something extraordinary with its mundanity and natural performances, whilst Oppenheimer achieves what should seemingly be impossible. I've narrowed this to two films, but be real. Doing the impossible is always more impressive.
Will Win: Christopher Nolan
Should Win: Christopher Nolan
BEST PICTURE
You've heard me say a lot about all these films already. You could probably guess my ranking based on what's been said. But here's some final thoughts. Past Lives and The Holdovers are my favourites. I will revisit them both soon, followed by Anatomy of a Fall and Oppenheimer. But there is something I can't shake about Oppenheimer. Everything about it on paper should be a snooze-fest but it is astonishing. It has done so much for the industry and is one of the most definitive film makers of the generation at his very best.
Will Win: Oppenheimer
Should Win: Oppenheimer
