In a so-so year for awards, was there anything astounding? With the distinctly average Bohemian Rhapsody having a chance to win Best Picture and Best Actor (awards that could easily belong to the non-nominated First Reformed), there's an odd feeling over the Oscars this year. A hostless show, awards added and withdrawn, removed from the broadcast and reinstated, and a bland voting ballot characterise the year. With only hours to go, here are my musings on who will win and who should.
Shorts:
Best Animated Short
The best animated short of the year was Lost & Found which was snubbed. So then it's a toss-up between the cutesy Bao and the more daring Weekends. The others were a bit more predictable or just trash (Animal Behaviour). It's a bit of a guess but in a world dominated by Pixar, this is Bao's to lose.
Will Win: Bao
Should Win: Lost & Found Weekends
Best Live Action Short
Live actions shorts this year have got an unfair (in my opinion) bad press. Regardless, no one has had anything bad to say about Mother and it'd be a shame to see anything less beat it to the prize, but it may have been too shocking and upsetting to win voters over. Detainment has suffered too much controversy to be awarded whilst Skin proved divisive and Fauvre too unsettling. Marguerite, however, is appealing to all. A short, emotive little drama. Easy, safe, and effective.
Will Win: Marguerite
Should Win: Mother
Best Documentary Short
This year's shorts are a bit all over the place. Some say very little but are impactful (Night at the Garden) and some feel too familiar, showing the same old problems again (Lifeboat, End Game). Black Sheep is an interesting insight into a black teen in a town that doesn't accept him, but Period. End of Sentence feels like the most original and insightful documentary. Exploring a stigma and following those trying to overcome it, Period gets into its subject matter more than its competitors.
Will Win: Period. End of Sentence
Should Win: Period. End of Sentence
Technical Categories:
Best Cinematography
Full disclosure: I've not seen Never Look Away so I cannot comment on that.
Simply put, this seems to be Roma's award to lose. It could be close with Cold War in similar black and white, or The Favourite with its fish-eye lens isolating its characters, highlighting their lonlieness, but it'd be unlikely to see anything topple the Mexican Masterpiece.
Will Win: Roma
Should Win: Darkest Hour
Best Costume Design
Historically, period pieces do extremely will in costume design. So The Favourite is the best pick here. That being said, recreating and exaggerating a style is one thing, but creating a nation's tribal-wear is a whole different matter. The Favourite is the safe bet. Black Panther is the right bet.
Will Win: The Favourite
Should Win: Black Panther
Best Make-up and Hairstyling
Vice is similar to Darkest Hour last year. The performance was 50% makeup and as such, it has to take this award. Though Border and Mary Queen of Scots were excellent competitors in this category too, they just can't edge out the Best Picture contender.
Will Win: Vice
Should Win: Vice
Best Production Design
World building in Production Design often fall into the same categories as costume. That being said, The Favourite is so detailed, so precisely designed that it deserves this one over Black Panther which, like much of the film, felt limited by its Marvel overtones.
Will Win: The Favourite
Should Win: The Favourite
Best Visual Effects
This award belongs to Ready Player One, a world built on passionately designed visual effects. It may fall to the might of The Avengers which was also impressive, but Ready Player One felt real, it felt varied. It didn't feel like too much or like inconsistent like The Avengers but will the Academy recognise that? A fringe option is First Man, but it feels undeserved next to the two technical marvels it is up against.
Will Win: Avengers: Infinity War
Should Win: Ready Player One
Best Film Editing
Most of all, I'm praying this doesn't go to the painfully edited Bohemian Rhapsody. This feels like Vice's award. If nothing else, Vice was well paced, well pieced together, and that is where most of its success was found. Similar to makeup, Vice was made, literally and figuratively, by its editing.
Will Win: Vice
Should Win: Vice
Best Sound Editing
As always, the sound predictions are all over the place. As its (sadly) sole nomination, A Quiet Place may get this as a well deserved compensation. Considering it was one of the best films of the year and its narrative was based on sound, it seems like a sure bet. But other, more 'soundy' films could interject. Films like (shudder) Bohemian Rhapsody or (shrug) First Man. Both worthy, but the sound editing is not nearly as impactful as A Quiet Place. First Man may nip it for its space sequences but it is ultimately hard to say.
Will Win: A Quiet Place
Should Win: A Quiet Place
Best Sound Mixing
Music equals a good chance here. Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born both stand a chance but the Freddie Mercury biopic is coming out on top in the polls. But Bohemian Rhapsody didn't make me feel a Queen live performance. Just listen (not watch) to the real Live Aid performance and feel the tingles. A Star is Born created that in its live shows.
Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Should Win: Anything but Bohemian Rhapsody A Star is Born
Music:
Best Original Song
One word: Shallows. Tingles, every time.
Will Win: 'Shallows' from A Star is Born
Should Win: 'Shallows' from A Star is Born
Best Original Score
This should be Beale Street's for the taking. It's a beautiful score and I don't want to indulge anything else winning
Will Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Writing:
Best Adapted Screenplay
Tough tough call here. Beale Street and Can You Ever Forgive Me? are good options here as they were shuffled out from the Best Picture contest and this often works as a compensation prize. But Blackkklansman is also a strong contender with Best Picture backing, though not looking likely to win there. It'd be a shame to not see Can You Ever Forgive Me? take home some gold and this would be its category to do so, but it looks to be edged out.
Will Win: Blackklansman
Should Win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Original Screenplay
The screenplays this year are so tightly contested. More than anything, it's nice to see things not nominated for Best Picture to succeed here and First Reformed should be the pick here. And it's a toss-up. GoldDerby's experts pin this as The Favourite's to win. The Oscarcast's formula gives it to First Reformed (similar split in adapted screenplay). When maths and experts disagree it's hard to decide, but I'm going to side with humans. Bo Burnham was robbed.
Will Win: The Favourite
Should Win: Eight Grade First Reformed
Fringe Films:
Best Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Versewas snubbed for best picture. It's dominated everything so far and rightly so. There's a fear that Incredibles 2 may sneak out of nowhere with Pixar's power.
Will Win: Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse
Should win: Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse
Best Documentary Feature
A strange category this year after two frontrunners didn't make the nominees (Will You Be My Neighbour? and Three Identical Strangers), but a thrilling category nonetheless. Minding The Gap and Free Solo are the front runners and whilst the former is more compelling in its story, the latter is technically and visually overwhelming. It is a triumph of documentary filmmaking even if it's not quite as moving as Minding the Gap.
Will Win: Free Solo
Should Win: Free Solo
Best Foreign Language Film
As before, Never Look Away is unseen.
Despite Shoplifters and Cold War being brilliant, when a Foreign Language film is also up for Best Picture it seems unfair to even have a Foreign Film category at all. Roma has this in the bag and it would bizarre (and brilliant) if anything else took it.
Will Win: Roma
Should Win: Roma
The Big Five:
Best Supporting Actor
Sadly dominated by the underwhelming and mostly forgettable Green Book, Mahershala Ali seems a shoe-in. But I would love to see Richard E. Grant prevail here. His performance in Can You Ever Forgive Me? was astonishing. A real performance from a great man that deserves recognition.
Will Win: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Should win: Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Best Supporting Actress
The biggest race of the night. This could go to the wire between Regina King and Rachel Weisz, but Amy Adams and Emma Stone are not far behind. With The Favourite's momentum, I think Weisz may have the edge here but my adoration for Beale Street gives me a soft spot for Regina King's outstanding performance and the critics at GoldDerby seem to be backing her too.
Will Win: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Should Win: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Best Actress
Glenn Close. Should be Olivia Coleman or (if it were up to me) Mellissa McCarthy who both give performances of a lifetime (particularly McCarthy). Close will get it as a 'right person-wrong film' award whilst McCarthy and Coleman will be back another day. Shouldn't be how it works, but there you go.
Will Win: Glenn Close (The Wife)
Should Win: Mellissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper and Willem Dafoe are brilliant. They won't win because they didn't impersonate someone that can have clips played side-by-side with their real-life counter part. Rami Malek is the top choice here for his performance as Freddie Mercury but it's undeserved (especially as Malek is a brilliant actor who deserves it for a better performance in years to come). Bale is great, but he's working with material better than his performance, but at least he becomes Cheney, unlike Malek with Mercury. Ethan Hawke was robbed.
Will Win: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Should Win: Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron deserves this and earned this. Roma is a beautiful piece of art and only Pawlikowski came close to doing something similar.
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Best Picture
A mostly so-so year. It's between Roma and Green Book. Both are good and the Academy may go for the safe, American Green Book but this should be Roma's. Roma is breathtaking, bold, and beautiful. It's everything we want from cinema. Somehow classic and modern at the same time and entirely captivating. Green Book is emotive and fun, but ultimately forgettable. If voters are voting immediately after watching Green Book it may win. A week later and Roma has it.
Don't forget, the Best Picture votes are different and voters choose a top five in order. In each round a film is eliminated so Green Book may come through due to being a lot of voters second choice. All that being said, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse was robbed.
Will Win: Roma
Should Win: Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse A Star is Born
Best Animated Short
The best animated short of the year was Lost & Found which was snubbed. So then it's a toss-up between the cutesy Bao and the more daring Weekends. The others were a bit more predictable or just trash (Animal Behaviour). It's a bit of a guess but in a world dominated by Pixar, this is Bao's to lose.
Best Live Action Short
Should Win: Mother
Best Documentary Short
This year's shorts are a bit all over the place. Some say very little but are impactful (Night at the Garden) and some feel too familiar, showing the same old problems again (Lifeboat, End Game). Black Sheep is an interesting insight into a black teen in a town that doesn't accept him, but Period. End of Sentence feels like the most original and insightful documentary. Exploring a stigma and following those trying to overcome it, Period gets into its subject matter more than its competitors.
Will Win: Period. End of Sentence
Should Win: Period. End of Sentence
Technical Categories:
Best Cinematography
Full disclosure: I've not seen Never Look Away so I cannot comment on that.
Simply put, this seems to be Roma's award to lose. It could be close with Cold War in similar black and white, or The Favourite with its fish-eye lens isolating its characters, highlighting their lonlieness, but it'd be unlikely to see anything topple the Mexican Masterpiece.
Will Win: Roma
Should Win: Darkest Hour
Best Costume Design
Historically, period pieces do extremely will in costume design. So The Favourite is the best pick here. That being said, recreating and exaggerating a style is one thing, but creating a nation's tribal-wear is a whole different matter. The Favourite is the safe bet. Black Panther is the right bet.
Will Win: The Favourite
Should Win: Black Panther
Best Make-up and Hairstyling
Vice is similar to Darkest Hour last year. The performance was 50% makeup and as such, it has to take this award. Though Border and Mary Queen of Scots were excellent competitors in this category too, they just can't edge out the Best Picture contender.
Will Win: Vice
Should Win: Vice
Best Production Design
World building in Production Design often fall into the same categories as costume. That being said, The Favourite is so detailed, so precisely designed that it deserves this one over Black Panther which, like much of the film, felt limited by its Marvel overtones.
Will Win: The Favourite
Should Win: The Favourite
Best Visual Effects
This award belongs to Ready Player One, a world built on passionately designed visual effects. It may fall to the might of The Avengers which was also impressive, but Ready Player One felt real, it felt varied. It didn't feel like too much or like inconsistent like The Avengers but will the Academy recognise that? A fringe option is First Man, but it feels undeserved next to the two technical marvels it is up against.
Will Win: Avengers: Infinity War
Should Win: Ready Player One
Best Film Editing
Most of all, I'm praying this doesn't go to the painfully edited Bohemian Rhapsody. This feels like Vice's award. If nothing else, Vice was well paced, well pieced together, and that is where most of its success was found. Similar to makeup, Vice was made, literally and figuratively, by its editing.
Will Win: Vice
Should Win: Vice
Best Sound Editing
As always, the sound predictions are all over the place. As its (sadly) sole nomination, A Quiet Place may get this as a well deserved compensation. Considering it was one of the best films of the year and its narrative was based on sound, it seems like a sure bet. But other, more 'soundy' films could interject. Films like (shudder) Bohemian Rhapsody or (shrug) First Man. Both worthy, but the sound editing is not nearly as impactful as A Quiet Place. First Man may nip it for its space sequences but it is ultimately hard to say.
Will Win: A Quiet Place
Should Win: A Quiet Place
Best Sound Mixing
Music equals a good chance here. Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born both stand a chance but the Freddie Mercury biopic is coming out on top in the polls. But Bohemian Rhapsody didn't make me feel a Queen live performance. Just listen (not watch) to the real Live Aid performance and feel the tingles. A Star is Born created that in its live shows.
Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody
Should Win: Anything but Bohemian Rhapsody A Star is Born
Music:
Best Original Song
One word: Shallows. Tingles, every time.
Will Win: 'Shallows' from A Star is Born
Should Win: 'Shallows' from A Star is Born
Best Original Score
This should be Beale Street's for the taking. It's a beautiful score and I don't want to indulge anything else winning
Will Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk
Writing:
Best Adapted Screenplay
Tough tough call here. Beale Street and Can You Ever Forgive Me? are good options here as they were shuffled out from the Best Picture contest and this often works as a compensation prize. But Blackkklansman is also a strong contender with Best Picture backing, though not looking likely to win there. It'd be a shame to not see Can You Ever Forgive Me? take home some gold and this would be its category to do so, but it looks to be edged out.
Will Win: Blackklansman
Should Win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Best Original Screenplay
The screenplays this year are so tightly contested. More than anything, it's nice to see things not nominated for Best Picture to succeed here and First Reformed should be the pick here. And it's a toss-up. GoldDerby's experts pin this as The Favourite's to win. The Oscarcast's formula gives it to First Reformed (similar split in adapted screenplay). When maths and experts disagree it's hard to decide, but I'm going to side with humans. Bo Burnham was robbed.
Will Win: The Favourite
Should Win: Eight Grade First Reformed
Fringe Films:
Best Animated Feature
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Versewas snubbed for best picture. It's dominated everything so far and rightly so. There's a fear that Incredibles 2 may sneak out of nowhere with Pixar's power.
Will Win: Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse
Should win: Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse
Best Documentary Feature
A strange category this year after two frontrunners didn't make the nominees (Will You Be My Neighbour? and Three Identical Strangers), but a thrilling category nonetheless. Minding The Gap and Free Solo are the front runners and whilst the former is more compelling in its story, the latter is technically and visually overwhelming. It is a triumph of documentary filmmaking even if it's not quite as moving as Minding the Gap.
Will Win: Free Solo
Should Win: Free Solo
Best Foreign Language Film
As before, Never Look Away is unseen.
Despite Shoplifters and Cold War being brilliant, when a Foreign Language film is also up for Best Picture it seems unfair to even have a Foreign Film category at all. Roma has this in the bag and it would bizarre (and brilliant) if anything else took it.
Will Win: Roma
Should Win: Roma
The Big Five:
Best Supporting Actor
Sadly dominated by the underwhelming and mostly forgettable Green Book, Mahershala Ali seems a shoe-in. But I would love to see Richard E. Grant prevail here. His performance in Can You Ever Forgive Me? was astonishing. A real performance from a great man that deserves recognition.
Will Win: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)
Should win: Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Best Supporting Actress
The biggest race of the night. This could go to the wire between Regina King and Rachel Weisz, but Amy Adams and Emma Stone are not far behind. With The Favourite's momentum, I think Weisz may have the edge here but my adoration for Beale Street gives me a soft spot for Regina King's outstanding performance and the critics at GoldDerby seem to be backing her too.
Will Win: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Should Win: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)
Best Actress
Glenn Close. Should be Olivia Coleman or (if it were up to me) Mellissa McCarthy who both give performances of a lifetime (particularly McCarthy). Close will get it as a 'right person-wrong film' award whilst McCarthy and Coleman will be back another day. Shouldn't be how it works, but there you go.
Will Win: Glenn Close (The Wife)
Should Win: Mellissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)
Best Actor
Bradley Cooper and Willem Dafoe are brilliant. They won't win because they didn't impersonate someone that can have clips played side-by-side with their real-life counter part. Rami Malek is the top choice here for his performance as Freddie Mercury but it's undeserved (especially as Malek is a brilliant actor who deserves it for a better performance in years to come). Bale is great, but he's working with material better than his performance, but at least he becomes Cheney, unlike Malek with Mercury. Ethan Hawke was robbed.
Will Win: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)
Should Win: Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)
Best Director
Alfonso Cuaron deserves this and earned this. Roma is a beautiful piece of art and only Pawlikowski came close to doing something similar.
Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)
Best Picture
Don't forget, the Best Picture votes are different and voters choose a top five in order. In each round a film is eliminated so Green Book may come through due to being a lot of voters second choice. All that being said, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse was robbed.
Will Win: Roma
Should Win: Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse A Star is Born
No comments:
Post a Comment