Oscar Predictions 2019

In a so-so year for awards, was there anything astounding? With the distinctly average Bohemian Rhapsody having a chance to win Best Picture and Best Actor (awards that could easily belong to the non-nominated First Reformed), there's an odd feeling over the Oscars this year. A hostless show, awards added and withdrawn, removed from the broadcast and reinstated, and a bland voting ballot characterise the year. With only hours to go, here are my musings on who will win and who should.


Shorts:

Best Animated Short

The best animated short of the year was Lost & Found which was snubbed. So then it's a toss-up between the cutesy Bao and the more daring Weekends. The others were a bit more predictable or just trash (Animal Behaviour). It's a bit of a guess but in a world dominated by Pixar, this is Bao's to lose.

Will Win: Bao

Should Win: Lost & Found  Weekends

Best Live Action Short

Live actions shorts this year have got an unfair (in my opinion) bad press. Regardless, no one has had anything bad to say about Mother and it'd be a shame to see anything less beat it to the prize, but it may have been too shocking and upsetting to win voters over. Detainment has suffered too much controversy to be awarded whilst Skin proved divisive and Fauvre too unsettling. Marguerite, however, is appealing to all. A short, emotive little drama. Easy, safe, and effective. 

Will Win: Marguerite
Should Win: Mother

Best Documentary Short
This year's shorts are a bit all over the place. Some say very little but are impactful (Night at the Garden) and some feel too familiar, showing the same old problems again (Lifeboat, End Game). Black Sheep is an interesting insight into a black teen in a town that doesn't accept him, but Period. End of Sentence feels like the most original and insightful documentary. Exploring a stigma and following those trying to overcome it, Period gets into its subject matter more than its competitors. 

Will Win: Period. End of Sentence
Should Win: Period. End of Sentence

Technical Categories:

Best Cinematography

Full disclosure: I've not seen Never Look Away so I cannot comment on that. 

Simply put, this seems to be Roma's award to lose. It could be close with Cold War in similar black and white, or The Favourite with its fish-eye lens isolating its characters, highlighting their lonlieness, but it'd be unlikely to see anything topple the Mexican Masterpiece. 

Will Win: Roma

Should Win: Darkest Hour

Best Costume Design

Historically, period pieces do extremely will in costume design. So The Favourite is the best pick here. That being said, recreating and exaggerating a style is one thing, but creating a nation's tribal-wear is a whole different matter. The Favourite is the safe bet. Black Panther is the right bet. 

Will Win: The Favourite

Should Win: Black Panther

Best Make-up and Hairstyling

Vice is similar to Darkest Hour last year. The performance was 50% makeup and as such, it has to take this award. Though Border and Mary Queen of Scots were excellent competitors in this category too, they just can't edge out the Best Picture contender.

Will Win: Vice

Should Win: Vice

Best Production Design

World building in Production Design often fall into the same categories as costume. That being said, The Favourite is so detailed, so precisely designed that it deserves this one over Black Panther which, like much of the film, felt limited by its Marvel overtones. 

Will Win: The Favourite

Should Win: The Favourite

Best Visual Effects

This award belongs to Ready Player One, a world built on passionately designed visual effects. It may fall to the might of The Avengers which was also impressive, but Ready Player One felt real, it felt varied. It didn't feel like too much or like inconsistent like The Avengers but will the Academy recognise that? A fringe option is First Man, but it feels undeserved next to the two technical marvels it is up against.

Will Win: Avengers: Infinity War

Should Win: Ready Player One

Best Film Editing

Most of all, I'm praying this doesn't go to the painfully edited Bohemian Rhapsody. This feels like Vice's award. If nothing else, Vice was well paced, well pieced together, and that is where most of its success was found. Similar to makeup, Vice was made, literally and figuratively, by its editing.

Will Win: Vice

Should Win: Vice

Best Sound Editing

As always, the sound predictions are all over the place. As its (sadly) sole nomination, A Quiet Place may get this as a well deserved compensation. Considering it was one of the best films of the year and its narrative was based on sound, it seems like a sure bet. But other, more 'soundy' films could interject. Films like (shudder) Bohemian Rhapsody or (shrug) First Man. Both worthy, but the sound editing is not nearly as impactful as A Quiet Place. First Man may nip it for its space sequences but it is ultimately hard to say.

Will Win: A Quiet Place

Should Win: A Quiet Place

Best Sound Mixing

Music equals a good chance here. Bohemian Rhapsody and A Star is Born both stand a chance but the Freddie Mercury biopic is coming out on top in the polls. But Bohemian Rhapsody didn't make me feel a Queen live performance. Just listen (not watch) to the real Live Aid performance and feel the tingles. A Star is Born created that in its live shows. 

Will Win: Bohemian Rhapsody

Should Win: Anything but Bohemian Rhapsody A Star is Born

Music:

Best Original Song

One word: Shallows. Tingles, every time. 

Will Win: 'Shallows' from A Star is Born

Should Win: 'Shallows' from A Star is Born

Best Original Score

This should be Beale Street's for the taking. It's a beautiful score and I don't want to indulge anything else winning

Will Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Should Win: If Beale Street Could Talk

Writing:

Best Adapted Screenplay

Tough tough call here. Beale Street and Can You Ever Forgive Me? are good options here as they were shuffled out from the Best Picture contest and this often works as a compensation prize. But Blackkklansman is also a strong contender with Best Picture backing, though not looking likely to win there. It'd be a shame to not see Can You Ever Forgive Me? take home some gold and this would be its category to do so, but it looks to be edged out. 

Will Win: Blackklansman

Should Win: Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Original Screenplay

The screenplays this year are so tightly contested. More than anything, it's nice to see things not nominated for Best Picture to succeed here and First Reformed should be the pick here. And it's a toss-up. GoldDerby's experts pin this as The Favourite's to win. The Oscarcast's formula gives it to First Reformed (similar split in adapted screenplay). When maths and experts disagree it's hard to decide, but I'm going to side with humans. Bo Burnham was robbed. 

Will Win: The Favourite

Should Win: Eight Grade First Reformed

Fringe Films:

Best Animated Feature

Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Versewas snubbed for best picture. It's dominated everything so far and rightly so. There's a fear that Incredibles 2 may sneak out of nowhere with Pixar's power. 

Will Win: Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse

Should win: Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse

Best Documentary Feature

A strange category this year after two frontrunners didn't make the nominees (Will You Be My Neighbour? and Three Identical Strangers), but a thrilling category nonetheless. Minding The Gap and Free Solo are the front runners and whilst the former is more compelling in its story, the latter is technically and visually overwhelming. It is a triumph of documentary filmmaking even if it's not quite as moving as Minding the Gap.

Will Win: Free Solo

Should Win: Free Solo

Best Foreign Language Film

As before, Never Look Away is unseen.

Despite Shoplifters and Cold War being brilliant, when a Foreign Language film is also up for Best Picture it seems unfair to even have a Foreign Film category at all. Roma has this in the bag and it would bizarre (and brilliant) if anything else took it. 

Will Win: Roma

Should Win: Roma

The Big Five:

Best Supporting Actor

Sadly dominated by the underwhelming and mostly forgettable Green Book, Mahershala Ali seems a shoe-in. But I would love to see Richard E. Grant prevail here. His performance in Can You Ever Forgive Me? was astonishing. A real performance from a great man that deserves recognition. 

Will Win: Mahershala Ali (Green Book)

Should win: Richard E. Grant (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Best Supporting Actress

The biggest race of the night. This could go to the wire between Regina King and Rachel Weisz, but Amy Adams and Emma Stone are not far behind. With The Favourite's momentum, I think Weisz may have the edge here but my adoration for Beale Street gives me a soft spot for Regina King's outstanding performance and the critics at GoldDerby seem to be backing her too.

Will Win: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Should Win: Regina King (If Beale Street Could Talk)

Best Actress

Glenn Close. Should be Olivia Coleman or (if it were up to me) Mellissa McCarthy who both give performances of a lifetime (particularly McCarthy). Close will get it as a 'right person-wrong film' award whilst McCarthy and Coleman will be back another day. Shouldn't be how it works, but there you go. 

Will Win: Glenn Close (The Wife)

Should Win: Mellissa McCarthy (Can You Ever Forgive Me?)

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper and Willem Dafoe are brilliant. They won't win because they didn't impersonate someone that can have clips played side-by-side with their real-life counter part. Rami Malek is the top choice here for his performance as Freddie Mercury but it's undeserved (especially as Malek is a brilliant actor who deserves it for a better performance in years to come). Bale is great, but he's working with material better than his performance, but at least he becomes Cheney, unlike Malek with Mercury. Ethan Hawke was robbed. 

Will Win: Rami Malek (Bohemian Rhapsody)

Should Win: Ethan Hawke (First Reformed) Bradley Cooper (A Star is Born)

Best Director

Alfonso Cuaron deserves this and earned this. Roma is a beautiful piece of art and only Pawlikowski came close to doing something similar.  

Will Win: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)

Should Win: Alfonso Cuaron (Roma)

Best Picture

A mostly so-so year. It's between Roma and Green Book. Both are good and the Academy may go for the safe, American Green Book but this should be Roma's. Roma is breathtaking, bold, and beautiful. It's everything we want from cinema. Somehow classic and modern at the same time and entirely captivating. Green Book is emotive and fun, but ultimately forgettable. If voters are voting immediately after watching Green Book it may win. A week later and Roma has it.

Don't forget, the Best Picture votes are different and voters choose a top five in order. In each round a film is eliminated so Green Book may come through due to being a lot of voters second choice. All that being said, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse was robbed. 

Will Win: Roma

Should Win: Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse A Star is Born

Best Picture 2019: Part II

Green Book

Racism is bad, buddy road movies are good, and few show that better than Green Book. In many senses, it's too formulaic and adheres to too many stereotypical scenarios and characters but the chemistry onscreen is electric. Mortensen and Ali are both on brilliant form and it is the way they work together that really lends Green Book its success.

Green Book manages to be powerful in the issues it portrays but also funny and heartwarming. That may seem like it would undermine the severity of racism but it actually emphasises the contrast in the way successful African Americans were (and are) treated. The film has been riddled with some scandals - some more scandalous than others - but that shouldn't detract you from the fact that this is a good, mostly well crafted, film. That being said, its biggest weakness is not anything that happens on screen, but rather that none of that is hugely memorable. There's nothing bold here and it causes Green Book to slowly fade into a cinematic mist of similarly well-intentioned but safe film-making.

Roma

A cinematic love letter, in part to Cuarón's home country of Mexico, and in part to the language of film making. An emotive, powerful piece of cinema that never drifts through life, but purposefully captures the unfolding events of a young maid's life.

Roma has everything one could ask for (except colour, I suppose). Its shot in beautifully crisp black and white (rivalled only by this year's Cold War), holding its gaze and refusing to cut away. The camera pans with characters as they navigate relationships with one another, balancing employment and class. Cuarón isn't afraid to let things sit for a moment, allowing the audience to fully absorb everything in front of them. Similarly, he introduces details that seem small or insignificant and grows them into a full and powerful climax without the need for constant action, CGI magic, or big names to make it captivating. This love letter is written to ask its lover, the viewers, to come home and remember what made them fall in love with cinema to begin with.

The Favourite

What happens when you take a director known for a film about single people being turned into animals and have them direct a period piece about a 1700s queen and the ladies in her court? You get The Favourite; a daring and dizzying display of regal ridiculousness captured with whip pans and a fish-eye lens.

The Favourite boasts stunning performance from its three leading ladies, Emma Stone, Rachel Weisz, and Olivia Coleman. They are all devilish and controlling but also weak at times which opens up opportunities for power struggles to emerge, and these struggles are the backbone of the narrative. This is a weird world of duck and lobster racing, of sapphic love-making, and of rotten fruit throwing Torys but its absurdity never feels out of place or unneeded. This is the world Lanthimos has created in order to tell this story, this foul-mouthed reality is not so different from our own and it is the best reality to tell this story.

Blackklansman

Blacksploitation films may have faded out of popular culture (and probably for good reasons) but if there were one man to play with the genre, it would be Spike Lee. The veteran director is back with a fun recreation of a completely bizarre police case.

The concept alone, a black man infiltrating the Ku Klux Klan, seems ridiculous but there is a reality here Lee wants to present. From the moment the screen flicks into life, you can feel Lee's purposeful hand guiding the viewer, using cinema as a point of focus. Scenes from Gone With The Wind and Birth of a Nation grace the screen before anything happens, putting the slave-driving South (particularly that glorified in celluloid) in the audience's mind immediately. The rest of the story is fun, dramatic, and well performed but don't let the light tone and historic setting fool you. Lee closes as purposefully as he opens, jumping forward to the present and showing the viewer cars ploughing through crowds of black protestors, reminding us that racism is not dead and in fact, racism still kills.

Animated Shorts

Bao

Pixar's obligatory nomination in the short category is arguably one of their weaker. It ticks a lot of boxes, is pertinent to a particular culture, and is poetic in some of it's storytelling, but it's a little confusing and underwhelming. It's cute, but the emotional core of it just doesn't quite hit home. 

Animal Behaviour

The weakest of the nominated shorts (and of those shortlisted, in all honesty). It's a mildly entertaining skit with animals seeking therapy for their animalistic behaviour (haha), but the entire first half is too safe. The jokes are too obvious and the dialogue is strained. It picks up in its second half, but it's still too simplistic with it's real focus only appearing at the very end - too late.

Late Afternoon

A moving little short about how precious our memories really are, especially when the mind starts failing. Its abstract animation drifts through loose memories in swirls of colour, diving into a cup of tea and out into happier days gone by. Its gloriously animated and powerfully emotive.

One Small Step

Simple stories are sometimes the best, and One Small Step is no exception. Beautifully animated and brilliantly paced. It builds you up, knocks you down, but like its protagonist, you get right on back up and keep going. It will tug at your heartstrings and may even send chills down your spine. It may be simple, but it's proof that you don't need dialogue to say something great.

Weekends

The boldest of the shorts. It's daring in its animation, examining the difficulties of a child spreading their lives across their parents separate homes. through dreamlike (read: nightmare) sequences that embody the fear and isolation the kid feels. It feels like the freshest, most original of the shorts that has the most unique voice. It may seem a little jarring, but it's compelling.

Special Mention

My ultimate 'snub' this year was the astonishing Lost & Found. A stunning seven minute stop motion animation that you can watch now on Youtube. It was on the shortlist for the Oscar nomination, but failed to make the final five. It is a powerful, emotive story, and despite not a single word, it builds suspense like that of a Hitchcock film. It will tug on a loose thread from your heart and make it unravel. Brilliantly produced, beautifully shot; this was an oversight by the Academy and it's a shame that the short won't get the recognition it deserves.

Best Pictures 2019: Part I

A Star is Born

A dazzling directorial debut from Bradley Cooper, breathing new life into a classic Hollywood narrative. As the fourth re-imagination of of the same story, there's a danger of being stale and tired, falling victim to over-used tropes and clichés. Cooper, however, fearlessly presses on like a veteran and creates one of the year's biggest and boldest hits.

A Star is Born requires one thing to succeed: a real star. Fortunately, it has two. Lady Gaga and Bradley Cooper are astonishing, with Cooper particularly turning in the performance of his life and Gaga's mesmerising voice will blow you away; the leads make this story real. There's an overwhelming feeling of truth hidden behind the artifice of cinema, helped in no small part by having a pop star reenact the climb to fame with dialogue that feels pulled directly from Gaga's backstory. It's a beautifully shot, masterful piece of work, that seamlessly overcomes its weaknesses such as pacing in its third act. Like the songs it contains, the film hardly misses a note. It's enthralling, moving, and musically outstanding.

Black Panther

Marvel films dominate today's cinematic landscape and appear in, and regularly on top of, lists of the best movies of the year. Whether you believe they're that good or not, no one can deny their cultural impact and certainly not that of Black Panther. The eighteenth film in the Marvel Cinematic Universe caused a worldwide stir at the beginning of 2018 when it was released and those ripples are still apparent now, a year on. It's clear to see why; in a cinematic universe, and more widely a cinematic landscape, featuring predominately white male heroes, the lack of representation for people of colour in cinema's biggest franchise was painfully apparent.

But Black Panther is not just a check box for the MCU's diversity quota; it's a political commentary, a thrill ride of power struggles, and one of the MCU's best movies. In many practical elements, it is flawless. Its production design and costume design are inspired, drawing inspiration from African tribal wear - the image of which contrasts with the valuable knowledge and resources the Wakandans have to offer. It feels more timely, more pertinent today than Marvel's other films, but even its visually impressive and strong design, fresh take on the superhero genre, and brilliant performances can't save it from feeling too neat, too restrained by the bigger picture that the MCU has in sight. With a bit more freedom, it's exciting to imagine what Black Panther could have been.

Bohemian Rhapsody

The controversies surrounding new allegations of sexual misconduct by director Bryan Singer may be an external factor affecting how (and if) one watches Bohemian Rhapsody but on on it's own merits, it still struggles. It's not a bad film, but it's not great. It's all spectacle and no depth and it feels like a cheap imitation of a creative genius. It's not just air-brushing to compress the narrative, it's unnecessarily manipulating Mercury's life to evoke an emotional response and tell a more compelling story. But it feels dishonest; Mercury was a legend, so why adjust key aspects of his life? In order to tell a 'better' story?

And despite being an entertaining romp through Queen's greatest hits, it's often emotively flat. The supporting cast are one dimensional at best which elevates a brilliant performance by Rami Malek by contrast. But there's no character development beyond Mercury, which is strained anyway and mostly hinges on a literal descent into a gay underworld. Maybe there was something worse here, salvaged into something watchable and mostly enjoyable by veteran editor John Ottman, but it's not inventive, innovative, and inspiring like its subject. And really, isn't that what Freddie deserves?

Vice

Featuring a powerhouse politician embodied in a powerhouse performance by Christian Bale, Vice tells the story of Dick Cheney; his subtle rise to a position of power and how he wielded that power. Adam McKay’s energetic follow up to The Big Short is angled in a way designed to make Thanos look like a puppy dog. It’s partisan and biased but it’s completely compelling film making, playing with narrative story structures and using its cinematic medium to full effect. There’s a restaurant scene where the menu offers tasty travesties from the invasion of Iraq, a false ending, archival footage, a Shakespearean soliloquy, and much more. It’s a storytelling marvel.

That being said, it sometimes rushes and sometimes drags and occasionally becomes confusing as we jump between self-aware meta-scenes, safari footage, and the main narrative. There’s a lot to digest which will no doubt require multiple viewings and it’s exciting enough to not make that a chore. It's funny, which only highlights the severity of its subject matter. It's a well aimed satire and, for the most part, it hits its mark dead on.

Oscars 2019: Part II

Free Solo

You may think someone climbing El Capitan without ropes would be the most compelling aspect of Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin's documentary but it is the climber rather than the climb that makes Free Solo what it is. Alex Honnold is risking life and limb when he solos, so what makes him attempt the insane? Looking closely at both Honnold and those closest to him, we get a glimpse into the mind of a major thrill seeker and it is exhilarating. By the time we get to the climb, you’ve already sweat a bucket and bitten all your nails off.

It’s a fascinating journey of one man trying to do the impossible and we’re along with him for all the very literal, and all too terrifying, highs and lows. It only really scratches the surface of man vs nature and why someone may want to do this, but it's beautifully shot, somewhat disturbing, and all-together captivating.

If Beale Street Could Talk

Barry Jenkins follows his best picture winning Moonlight with another close-up of life in the black community. He carefully dissects the institutional racism inherit in America, without ever abandoning the love story at the centre of his film. His camera paints poetry with a delicate and deliberate colour palette, capturing and commanding the eye. It glides through scenes like a dream, showing the joy and optimism amongst the pain and the suffering. Beale Street simply doesn’t need to talk when it looks this good.

Powerful performances ground Jenkins’ transcendent style, bringing human heart with strong but flawed characters. The chemistry and tensions on-screen are palpable, drawing the audience into the scene, seating them in the middle of the crossfire and forcing them into the conversation. Occasionally it may drag when indulging its vision too much, but it’s forgivable; ultimately, it’s powerful and emotive film making.

Christopher Robin

For many of us, Winnie the Pooh played a big part in our childhoods but none as big as the part he played in the childhood of his pal Christopher Robin. Also like many of us, Christopher grew up and forgot Pooh, filling his time with other things - work and family - until they reach breaking point with one another. It is at this crisis point that Pooh reappears to help his old friend once again. 

It's a charming film, though very familiar. The plot is ancient, though typically Disney, with some CGI Pooh Bears and Tiggers thrown in, and a goofily archetypal antagonist in Christopher's boss (Mark Gatiss) for good measure. And despite it's somewhat dark and dismal start for an excellent Ewan McGregor's Christopher, the film drips with joy and love for its source material. Pooh, who gets vastly more screen-time than the other critters of Hundred Acre Wood, is a delight, helped in no small part by Jim Cummings returning to voice the beloved bear. At it's worst, Christopher Robin is too plain and simple. At it's best, it's fun; plain and simple. 

Mirai

The true cosmic magic of family, the connections that transcend time, are on full display in Hosoda's Mirai. It's an adventure that plays with linear narrative storytelling, the best method to capture the jealousies, insecurities, need for love, and imagination of a young child whose space is invaded by a newborn sibling.

It's a touching exploration into memory and family, investigating the invisible links that hold the fabric of our lives together but it can be clunky at times. Mirai struggles to maintain its tempo, often too neatly tying up threads before they're suddenly unravelled again for the next mystical encounter. If nothing else, it's a refreshing reminder that animation is still alive and well if not flourishing, without feeling the need to adhere to the formats presented by the big western studios.

Oscars 2019: Part I

A Quiet Place

Alfred Hitchcock has long been deemed the 'King of Suspense' and many have tried to topple him from his throne. With so many worthy suiters, who would ever have thought that Jim from The Office would be one of those vying for the crown, but John Krasinski is more than a sitcom goofball. Director, writer, producer, and star - Krasinski takes 90 minutes and makes them unrelenting and unforgiving.

Featuring stunning performances from Krasinski, Blunt, Simmonds, and Jupe - a.k.a. the whole cast - a near immaculate screen-play, and sound-design to die for, A Quiet Place is a breakthrough for a promising young director. Also, it grabs the award for the best opening in years; if you're not gripped by it, then film-watching may not be for you.

Ready Player One

Steven Spielberg, one of history's most defining and versatile directors, is no stranger to the Oscars. He's won a couple, directed a couple of actors to win them, and been nominated for a couple of handfuls more. Whilst his eyes are normally on bigger prizes than Best Visual Effects, Ready Player One is a fun return to family magic for the veteran director. Set in a desolate future where a virtual reality system, Oasis, consumes everyone's times and lives, people (or rather their avatars) compete within the game to find the late creator's keys which open the doors to his enormous fortune.

Jumping in and out of its magnificent digital landscape, Ready Player One is a feast for the eyes. Almost immediately we're in the midst of a chaotic and reckless race; long lingering shots of computer generated mayhem dominate the screen and it is glorious. The narrative, whilst at times is contrived, is timely - grounded in the digital age - and littered with pop culture references. Occasionally this is the film's greatest strength (a particular scene should not be 'Overlooked'), but it may make the film irrelevant in five years time. For now though, it's a treat to be enjoyed today.

Ralph Breaks the Internet

Ralph Breaks the Internet is, to put it generously, a confused follow up to a great original. It doesn’t seem to know who it is appealing to; do the kids care about ebay’s bidding process, for example. It’s jokes about memes or YouTube videos being all about babies and cats are not satirical, but outdated. If there is a commentary about culture’s obsession with the internet, it’s lost amongst the backdrop of corporate identities and Disney’s intellectual properties. The film has no problem being explicit (it’s presentation of Ralph’s insecurities are like being slapped with a wet fish) but it never really approaches its subject matter with any sort of commentary or, more worryingly for a family film, any joy. At two hours in length, it’s overlong, underwhelming, and misguided.

RBG


Telling the story of a great woman does not a great documentary make. A good, if not simple, documentary that tells a great and important story, however, that may do. Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, the notorious RBG, is one of the most inspiring women in the United States and her story is one that people should know. That's where RBG comes in. It's a well structured, well presented documentary that fulfils its aims and its supreme subject's bubbling personality and fiery determination make for good watching.