As I sit to write this, the Red Carpet has begun in LA so if you were thinking you might try to catch up on the Oscar nominees this year, then you are probably too late, even to fit in Wallace & Gromit. Never fear, reader. It's taken some doing, some asking around, some cinema trips, and some VOD purchases but I've seen all 50 nominees so you don't have to. Headline is, generally, not a bad year. The worst film here is bad, but above that, most things are watchable. So here we go:
Shorts
Best Live Action Short
There's a lot to appreciate here, five solid shorts (not always a given). I'm Not a Robot is conceptionally fun, but runs out of steam, Anuja is fine but straightforward (though, with Netflix's backing), the other three are all pretty good. Bit of a coin flip which way it will go, but for me, the anxiety produced in A Lien just edges out The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent with The Last Ranger sitting in the middle.
My Pick: A Lien
My Prediction: Anuja
Best Animated Short
Lots of pretty things here - normally my favourite below the line category. A weaker year. Wander to Wonder is easily the best of the bunch, though the animation of In the Shadow of the Cypress is stunning. Beautiful Men will remain with me; an odd little journey into the insecurities of men.
My Pick: Wander to Wonder
My Prediction: Wander to Wonder
Best Documentary Short
Another strong category, exploring interesting themes. Death by Numbers and I am Ready, Warden deal with similar themes of justice and guilt in different ways - this may split their votes. Incident is provocative - and probably the best of the bunch in one sense. But it may deter pro-cop voters and those who think simply putting CCTV footage together is not really movie-making. The Only Girl in the Orchestra is fine but safe (also Netflix backed). Instruments of a Beating Heart stole my heart and is adorable.
My Pick: Instruments of a Beating Heart
My Prediction: The Only Girl in the Orchestra
Smaller Awards
Best original song
El Mal (Emilia Pérez) will win even though Mi Camino may be the better song. Neither are very good. Sing Sing's Like a Bird is the best. Forget the others, don't bother watching them.
My Pick: Like a Bird (Sing Sing)
My Prediction: El Mal (Emilia Pérez)
Best original score
Sometimes, the most memorable score is the most memorable for a reason. The Brutalist's score compliments its epic and brutal proportions. As nice as Conclave and particularly The Wild Robot's scores are, this is The Brutalist's to lose.
My Pick: The Brutalist
My Prediction: The Brutalist
Best cinematography
Expect the technical awards to go to one of the epics: The Brutalist or Dune: Part Two. Cinematography will go to the former. Nosferatu was striking but samey, Maria was beautiful but boring. Emilia Pérez looked like it was shot on a potato.
My Pick: The Brutalist
My Prediction: The Brutalist
Best visual effects
See above. This time, Dune takes the gong. None of the Monkey Movies manage that magic.
My Pick: Dune: Part Two
My Prediction: Dune: Part Two
Best sound
Almost always goes to the year's most impressive action/ sci-fi. This year, one is nominated for Best Picture.
My Pick: Dune: Part Two
My Prediction: Dune: Part Two
Best costume design
In my mind, design awards are between the world-building of Oz in Wicked or the capturing of the visually arresting style of the Vatican in Conclave. Wicked manages to be more impressive.
My Pick: Wicked
My Prediction: Wicked
Best production design
See above, though Dune: Part Two's world building is also worth recognising here.
I, however, completely believed Conclave happened in the Vatican - astonishing sets.
My Pick: Conclave
My Prediction: Wicked
Best make-up and hairstyling
It would be a pity if this is its only win of the night, but this is surely The Substance's best chance of grabbing a gong. As a body-horror, make-up is not just essential but is itself a character in the film. Similar can be said of (part of) A Different Man, a real highlight of this year's nominees.
My Pick: The Substance
My Prediction: The Substance
Best film editing
This is a precursor to the big Big Picture award, so the race is between the three big contenders, The Brutalist, Anora, and Conclave. Will people split their votes across some categories so all their favourites will take some away? If so, Conclave might take it here.
My Pick: The Brutalist
My Prediction: Conclave
Bigger Awards
Best international feature
This is a ridiculous two-horse race. I'm Still Here should win this lying down but for some reason Emilia Pérez is still in the running. It shouldn't be. It's bad. Putting aside its controversial treatment of Mexican and trans cultures and its lead's racist tweets, the film is bad on other levels. It sounds bad, looks bad, and has a bad plot. The Seed of the Sacred Fig is a far superior and braver movie and should be in second place with the other two in third and fourth.
My Pick: The Seed of the Sacred Fig
My Prediction: I'm Still Here
Best animated feature
Pixar's reign is over. Inside Out 2 is the least creative here - though by no means a bad film. Interestingly, both Flow and The Wild Robot have snuck into multiple categories which suggests they might have the edge over their competition (if so, RIP Wallace & Gromit), but The Wild Robot is the best of the bunch.
My Pick: The Wild Robot
My Prediction: The Wild Robot
Best documentary feature
A really interesting year for documentaries. Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat is the most creatively interesting documentary, but likely too dense for most. Sugarcane and Porcelain War deal with important topics but not with any great ingenuity. Black Box Diaries and No Other Land are both important documentaries dealing with real and current issues in powerful and hands-on ways, but No Other Land, especially in light of the escalation in conflict in Gaza since its filming, hits in a shocking way. It feels like the clear winner, but the US' pro-Israel position may cause issues.
My Pick: No Other Land
My Prediction: No Other Land
Best adapted screenplay
Nickel Boys, Sing Sing, and Conclave are all brilliant. Conclave is more popular and will take it, especially as a dialogue heavy semi-political thriller. It's almost all screenplay, baby. My personal pick keeps flicking between all three.
My Pick: Sing Sing
My Prediction: Conclave
Best original screenplay
What a great category. Probably my favourite every year and these are five great films. A Real Pain has had surprise success elsewhere and if that continues, here would not feel out of place. If people think Anora is going to snag Actress, Director, and Picture, they may give Eisenberg an award here. Plus, his speeches have been great, so no complaints here.
My Pick: Anora
My Prediction: A Real Pain (ooooooh this may be my only hot take!)
Best actor
Possibly the strongest acting nominees in a long time. All worthy winners. I don't care for musical biopic imitations, so my vote would go to either Brody or Fiennes, likely the latter, preferring the subtle doubt of Father Lawrence, to the big personality of László. But the Oscars have often gone with the musical biopic so maybe there is a cat among the pigeons?
My Pick: Ralph Fiennes
My Prediction: Adrien Brody
Best actress
Moore legacy Oscar, or young up-and-comer Madison. It is a close race and both have their precursor awards (Moore with SAG and Globes, Madison took the BAFTA). This is a coin flip. Don't forget Torres who is brilliant in I'm Still Here and grounds that film in reality. On a different year, it would be hers but sadly not this year.
My Pick: Demi Moore
My Prediction: Demi Moore
Best supporting actress
It's crazy to me that Emilia Pérez has 13 nominations, and even crazier to me that this is almost an uncompetitive award with Saldaña running away with it. Grande, who hasn't really had a look in, disappears into Glinda and performs with every ounce of her being. Presumably the comedy element is overlooked. Truly neither are actually support acts, but co-leads, so neither should be here. I do think it is category fraud and is robbing the other three of their chance at an award - three actual, and brilliant, supporting performances.
My Pick: Ariana Grande
My Prediction: Zoe Saldaña
Best supporting actor
I thought Jeremy Strong was brilliant in The Apprentice. Culkin was also great but 1) a co-lead and 2) very similar to Roman from Succession. Yura Borisov gives a more subtle performance in Anora and, despite good performances, Pearce and Norton fade out in this race. Culkin will take it, and it couldn't happen to a nicer guy.
My Pick: Jeremy Strong
My Prediction: Kieran Culkin
The Brutalist
Best director
Fargeat made the most exciting film here, a truly visionary product. The Substance oozes style and every shot is immaculate. Corbet has directed a popular three and a half hour epic. Baker had total control over, or rather to create, absolute chaos. Three great choices. But Corbet's achievement is monumental. Mangold who? Audiard made a bad film. What are we doing?
My Pick: Brady Corbet (but man am I nearly saying Coralie Fargeat)
My Prediction: Brady Corbet
Best picture
Man what a tricky, constantly changing choice. This would be my preferential ballot, in which number 1 is pretty fixed for its ambition and scale, as well as success. Clearly, I value ambition and creativity. Nickel Boys, a minimal nominee, shot entirely in POV was an utter joy. Well worth a watch. The top five here could easily be rearranged.
1) The Brutalist
2) The Substance
3) Nickel Boys
4) Anora
5) Conclave
6) Dune: Part Two
7) I'm Still Here
8) Wicked
9) A Complete Unknown
10) Emilia Pérez
My Prediction: Anora
